LatinNews Daily - 25 November 2008

Who is he? A business magnate and prominent government opponent, Marinkovic is president of the rightwing Comité pro Santa Cruz, an umbrella organisation based in the opposition region of Santa Cruz. Comprising civic groups, unions and business representatives, the Comité pro Santa Cruz had served as one of the driving forces for autonomy in the country.

Why watch him? Along with other regional opposition leaders, Marinkovic is currently attempting to assemble a united opposition movement against President Evo Morales and the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS).

Born: 21 August 1967, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.

Education: Graduated in electromechanical engineering, economy and finance from Texas University, US.

Public Life: The son of Croatian immigrants, Branko Marinkovic holds both Bolivian and Croatian citizenship. As well as being a major shareholder in Banco Económico bank, he owns Industrias Oleaginosas (IOL), one of the biggest cooking oil processing factories in Santa Cruz (which manufactures the cooking oil “Rico").

Through holding senior positions in private sector organisations such as the Cámara Agropecuaria del Oriente (CAO) and Federación de Empresarios Privados de Santa Cruz, Marinkovic built up his political profile, before being elected president of the Comité pro Santa Cruz in July 2007.

As the prefects and civic movements from the eastern opposition “Media Luna" regions (Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, Tarija) wrested the initiative from the political opposition in congress earlier this year over the issue of autonomy, the Comité pro Santa Cruz - and Marinkovic - played an increasingly important role in opposing the Morales government.

However a landmark agreement in October between the MAS and the congressional opposition alliance Podemos, which resulted in legislation to set date for a referendum on the new constitution, signified a resounding defeat for Marinkovic and the autonomists.

Time Line:

2000 : Becomes managing director of Industrias Oleaginosas (IOL).

2004: Becomes president of the Federación de Empresarios Privados de Santa Cruz.

July 2007: Elected president of the Comité pro Santa Cruz.

Strengths: A powerful magnate, Marinkovic demonstrated his leadership abilities through his roles in various business sector organisations. Such was his prominence earlier in the year that both the Bolivian government and, allegedly, US embassy officials, saw fit to meet with him and Santa Cruz prefect, Rubén Costas, rather than members of Podemos, the official political opposition. He is also very wealthy; a report by the local daily, La Prensa, suggested that the Marinkovic family is among eight families based in Santa Cruz which holds very sizeable assets within the Bolivian banking sector.

Weaknesses:   The agreement by Podemos and MAS in congress to pass legislation setting the date for the referendum on the new constitution proved hugely damaging to the autonomists, not least because it incorporated the autonomy demand (albeit a much less radical version than that desired by the Santa Cruz civic leaders).

Marinkovic and the Santa Cruz lobby were also widely discredited in September after the radical Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (UJC), the shock troops of the autonomists, seized public institutions in a show of violence which alienated their moderate supporters and generated widespread condemnation both within Bolivia and abroad.

The inability of the regional opposition movement to capitalize on their position earlier in the year and outright refusal to negotiate with the government in September in Cochabamba is widely considered a sign of their “political illiteracy". It resulted in the initiative once again being shifted to congress and the approval of the law setting 25 January 2008 as the date for the vote on the new constitution (which will most likely be passed, to the detriment of the interests of the Santa Cruz landowning lobby), leaving the autonomists with nothing.

Marinkovic himself currently faces two legal battles; the Marinkovic family is accused of owning some 26,000 hectares of land which belongs to the indigenous Guarani community. Meanwhile on 16 October the attorney general's office issued an arrest warrant for his sister, Tatiana Marinkovic, as legal representative of IOL for fraud and tax evasion; the company is accused of failing to pay nearly US$3m in taxes.

Prospects:The immediate future facing Marinkovic and the autonomists is bleak to say the least; with the approval of the law setting the date for the vote on the new constitution, the autonomists have little choice but to promote a “no" vote, which is unlikely to have much impact, given the overwhelming likelihood that the initiative will be approved.

One sign of the crisis facing the Santa Cruz lobby is the recent resignation of Juan Carlos Urenda, a key adviser to the Santa Cruz prefecture and ideologue behind the autonomist movement. On 14 November Urenda announced his decision, telling the rightwing Santa Cruz daily, El Deber that, with the incorporation of the autonomy demand in the new constitution, “Santa Cruz has lost the battle".

As regards Marinkovic' legal difficulties, the case against his sister is currently suspended, after the prosecutor in charge, Rime Choquehuanca, resigned at the end of last month, citing political pressure, a situation unlikely to reflect well on the family.

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